The DX Score says this asset is good today. The Moat Score determines how much of that survives. Applying a durability coefficient of 0.93/year derived from the moat analysis below, this asset projects to DX 50 in five years — a retention of 0.69, banded Softening.
Three assets, identical DX Score of 72 today
Where each lands after five years, by moat strength
Fortified moat (93)
Licensed, 6yr domain, proprietary data
72 → 65
Fortified
This asset (54)
Contested — see moat analysis below
72 → 50
Softening
Open field (9)
Thin API wrapper, new domain
72 → 32
Eroding
All three would appear identical on a scoreboard that reports only DX Score. They are not remotely the same asset, and they should not command the same price.
Moat Analysis — The 90-Day Test
Could a competent competitor, with unlimited AI tooling and $50,000, reach this position within 90 days? Each axis scores 0–25 against the blockers that survive that test.
Time Moat
Moderate — 3yr domain, 90 referring domains
13/25
Domain age 4/8 · backlinks 4/8 · review history 3/5 · operating history 2/4
The value here is in customer embedment, not technology. Annual contracts and four third-party integrations create genuine switching cost. But the permission axis is near-empty — nothing stops a funded competitor entering this category, and SOC 2 alone is not a barrier. Price the relationships, not the codebase.
Commodity Risk
46/100
Moderate exposure
Roughly 46% of this asset is reproducible code. Mainstream stack, no proprietary algorithm or trained model, no detected template lineage. A competitor could rebuild the product; they could not quickly rebuild the customer relationships.
We publish this number on every report. Sellers rarely enjoy it. A valuation you can only trust when it flatters the seller is not a valuation.
DX Score Breakdown
Time-to-Position18/25
IP Quality18/25
Market Opportunity16/25
Traction Signals20/25
Assessment Inputs
Time-to-Position
Meaningful build time skipped
18/25
Est. build cost$180,000Months to build10 monthsHourly rate used$125/hrReads as10 months of market entry skipped
How this range is built. The capability-cost anchor sums build, research, permission and traction capital to $180,000 — what it would cost to reach this position today, not what was historically spent. Moat Score sets the multiple — at 54 (Contested), this asset carries 0.55×–1.25×. A Fortified asset would carry 1.3×–2.8× on the same base.
Floor
$99,000
Mid estimate
$162,000
Ceiling
$225,000
Confidence: Documented — time and embedment axes machine-verified; permission and data axes rest on seller-supplied documents not independently audited.
Asking price
$210,000
30% above ADR mid
ADR mid
$162,000
Moat Improvement Plan
The permission axis is the cheapest point of leverage on this asset — six points are available without touching the product.
Convert month-to-month accounts to annual terms — +1 embedment
Complete the in-progress ISO 27001 certification — +2 permission
Apply for restricted partner tier with the primary data provider — +4 permission
Document the data flywheel with retention evidence — +3 data
Axis-by-axis actions to raise the Moat Score before sale
Included in the full report · $99 per listing
Traction Outlook
Current traction
Early
→
Anticipated within 12 months
Growth
Three pilot customers and annual contract structure support growth-tier traction within 12 months of focused go-to-market execution.
Traction trajectory & growth-tier timeline
Included in the full report · $99 per listing
Financial Projections
Anticipated MRR
$19,800
per month
Anticipated ARR
$237,600
per year
Breakeven
9 mo
to recover ADR mid
Basis: 200 paying users × $99/mo (4% conversion of ~5,000 target users at growth tier)
Methodology-based projections, not guarantees. Actual results depend on go-to-market execution, market conditions, and buyer capability.
MRR, ARR & breakeven projections
Included in the full report · $99 per listing
Market Benchmarks
vs. similar SaaS platforms
61st percentile
Based on 24 comps · DX 72 · Moat 54
Ranks above 61% of comparable platforms on a blended DX + moat basis. Moat is the limiting factor.
Asset Sale
Typical: 0.55–1.25× TTP
Est.: 0.9× TTP
$99K – $225K
License
Typical: 15–30% annually
Est.: 22% of ADR mid
$36K/yr
Revenue Share
Typical: 25–35% · 3–5 yrs
Est.: 30% for 4 yrs
$185K – $240K
Percentile ranking & comparable deal multiples
Included in the full report · $99 per listing
Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities & Risks
Strengths
Annual contracts create real switching cost
Four third-party integrations built against the API
240K proprietary records, legally transferable
SOC 2 Type II already held
Weaknesses
Permission moat near-empty — no regulatory barrier
Minor licensing encumbrances on the codebase
Moderate differentiation in a mid-size market
No proprietary algorithm or trained model
Opportunities
Restricted partner tier would add 4 permission points
ISO 27001 in progress — 2 further points available
Data flywheel exists but is undocumented
Enterprise upsell path via existing integrations
Risks
A funded competitor faces no approval barrier
46% commodity exposure on the product itself
Customer concentration if top accounts exceed 30%
Founder dependency through the integration relationships
Full SWOT analysis with actionable insights
Included in the full report · $99 per listing
Buyer Guidance
Recommended offer range
Open
$140,000
Target
$162,000
Walk-away
$200,000
The $210,000 ask sits 30% above ADR mid and above the moat-justified ceiling. The embedment story supports paying toward the top of the range; the absent permission moat does not support paying beyond it.
Deal structure fit
BEST
Revenue Share
30% of net rev · 4 yrs
Moat is Contested and the growth case is unproven. A revenue share transfers execution risk back to the seller and lets the buyer pay from proceeds rather than upfront.
MODERATE
Asset Sale
$140K – $200K
Viable at the lower half of the range with a 15% escrow holdback for 6 months and 90-day transition support covering the integration relationships.
Offer range, deal structure fit & negotiation points
Included in the full report · $99 per listing
Next Steps
If you’re buying
Verify the data transferability claim — request the privacy policy change-of-control clause and any DPAs in force
Confirm the four integrations survive a change of ownership; check for contractual consent requirements
Request customer concentration report — verify no single account exceeds 10% of revenue
Resolve the minor licensing encumbrance before close, or price it into the holdback
Negotiate 90-day transition support covering the integration partner relationships specifically
Buyer action plan tailored to this asset
Included in the full report · $99 per listing
This Asset Durability Report is analytical guidance only and is not a legal valuation. The durability projection is a model output, not a forecast. Actual price depends on negotiation, due diligence, market conditions, and buyer/seller circumstances. Consult M&A advisors and attorneys for binding valuations.
Get this report for any listing on DayXero
Submit your listing for a free DX Score and Moat Score. Unlock the full ADR for $99.